Making 2013 Emmy predictions is even more difficult than usual this year with the announcement that original web content can now compete against shows on traditional TV channels.
With the increasing popularity, success, and quality of web series, it’s a smart move. Some of the biggest names in Hollywood are producing web-only content, and this year’s Emmy Award nominations reflect that. Subscription streaming giant Netflix garnered a whopping 14 nominations for its VOD offerings, including one for the David Fincher-produced House of Cards for Outstanding Drama Series.
Netflix faces some stiff competition from cable and network television. Here’s our look at the big categories and who we think will come out on top.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama
Jon Hamm has been nominated every year, The Newsroom and Jeff Daniels are critical darlings, and Breaking Bad is in its last season, which could mean one last win for Bryan Cranston. But it’s Kevin Spacey’s performance as the bitter, conniving Francis Underwood that was a big reason the Netflix-exclusive series House of Cards received such attention. Winner: Kevin Spacey, House of Cards.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy
With the exception of Jason Bateman (Arrested Development), this is the same ballot presented by the Golden Globes a few months back and is strongly competitive. Don Cheadle (House of Lies) took home that trophy back in January, but Alec Baldwin (30 Rock) got the SAG award a few weeks later, which is usually a pretty strong indication of which box voters will check. On the other hand, his recent Twitter antics may be an eliminating factor, which might leave the field open for Bateman or Matt LeBlanc (Episodes). I would love to see Jason Bateman take the prize. It is a challenge for any actor to be asked to fall back into a character he last performed several years ago, but add to that performance the need for a current, relevant stripe, and you have Bateman’s latest version of Michael Bluth. Still, Don Cheadle’s nuanced and understated Marty Kaan does seem to be the one to beat. Winner: Don Cheadle, House of Lies.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama
Michelle Dockery has been nominated twice already for Downton Abbey, but has yet to walk out a winner. I suspect even her peers don’t realize how completely immersed in her character she really is, even altering her speaking voice; she would certainly have my vote. Claire Danes (Homeland) was last year’s winner, and the Academy loves to keep rewarding its favorites, so she may be a repeat. First timers Vera Farmiga (Bates Motel) and Kerry Washington (Scandal) could surprise, as could Elizabeth Moss, who has never won despite six nominations for her role on Mad Men. Still, I’m thinking House of Cards all the way. Winner: Robin Wright, House of Cards.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy
Another competitive field where everyone has been nominated many times. I think the novelty of Lena Dunham (Girls) might have worn off, and Enlightened may have flown a little too far under the radar for Laura Dern to walk away a winner. Julia Louis-Dreyfus is the reigning champion, and deservedly so. Her largely improvised role as the eponymous Veep Selina Meyer is genius. Tina Fey, she of many hats, is also a strong contender since the Academy may not get another chance to honor her any time soon. Edie Falco is a perennial favorite, but she’s already been awarded for Nurse Jackie. Winner: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep.
Outstanding Drama Series
Breaking Bad announced this as their final season two years ago, and voters might want to give the cable favorite a heroic send off. Otherwise, it’s the usual suspects on the ballot. The only newcomer here is House of Cards and that’s the show I will mark among my 2013 Emmy predictions. Winner: House of Cards, Netflix.
Outstanding Comedy Series
As much as I would love to see one-man production crew Louis CK get the respect his show deserves (he writes, directs, acts, and edits most of the episodes), I don’t think he will. Modern Family and 30 Rock have dominated for the last six years (Modern Family is the current champ). I also think Veep stands a very good chance of being officially acknowledged. But the fearless genius of Tina Fey will walk away with the prize one last time. Winner: 30 Rock, NBC.
This is just the tip of the Emmy iceberg. Do you think we got it right? Who do you think will win? Who got snubbed? Tell us in the comments below.
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